Cisco Systems Still a Wait and See

Cisco Systems Inc. (CSCO) 7% jump in the after hours session Tuesday was initially led by the networking equipment supplier’s strong fourth quarter earnings report. Excluding items, the company beat the consensus estimate of $.39 per share and the revenue target of $10.3 billion. Allaying fears of prolonged economic weakness also helped spark some optimism as Cisco CEO John Chambers reiterated the company’s growth expectations of 12% to 17%. Macro observations made by Chambers were decidedly positive, saying that the economic slowdown would be a “relatively short challenge going forward” and that the period of economic trouble wouldn’t be of a “long duration.” Perhaps the most encouraging part of the conference call was when he said that there is progress in the U.S. enterprise market and that total overall enterprise growth is possibly stabilizing; “while growth still varies dramatically by industry, the large multinationals and financial institutions, which were the first ones to decline almost a year ago, in terms of their spending with us, now are doing dramatically better” (transcript provided by SeekingAlpha). Contrast this with the comments he made about a “lumpy” enterprise market in the fall of ’07 when Cisco shares traded above $32 and there is reason to be cautiously optimistic. But given the economic conditions, Cisco failed to offer a full year view and instead projected that revenue growth for the first quarter would be around 8% and for the second quarter around 8.5%. According to the consensus analyst estimate, that outlook would imply a slight miss on revenue. With rather tepid guidance and economic uncertainty hanging in the balance, Cisco is still a wait and see.